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10 Exploratory Essay Topics on Earthquake Prediction

10 Exploratory Essay Topics on Earthquake Prediction You have been asked to write an exploratory essay on whether earthquakes are predictable or not. Even though you have over 15 websites open in your window for reference, you can’t seem to dig up anything meaningful. Fret not, today is your lucky day because we are going discuss an extensive three-part guide on the subject. In this section, you’ll find ten very informative facts on earthquake prediction while the next section is titled 20 topics on earthquake prediction for an exploratory essay, will help you select a good topic. There’s also a sample essay on one of those topics and finally, the third part of this guide discusses how to write the essay itself. We assure going through this guide, your exploratory essay will be exceptional and help you get full credit. Here are 10 facts on earthquake prediction for an exploratory essay:   Ã‚  Ã‚  To this day, there hasn’t been a system that can predict an earthquake, big or small, with 100% accuracy. Too often predictions have been labelled false alarms. The false-alarm label has made it very difficult to differentiate a particular detection system that shows real-time and accurate predictions rather than those relying on chance or estimates.   Ã‚  Ã‚  The elements leading up to an earthquake are multidimensional. Therefore, it is important to factor in space, magnitude and time-related aspects of the earthquake. It is important to come up with forecasts that are based on a probabilistic analysis because of the uncertainty in prediction parameters. It is not feasible that the predictions are deterministic; the forecast of seismicity should be based on statistical analysis. Even if the forecast is deterministic, it is important that its evaluation should be statistical to remove any possibilities of coincidence.   Ã‚  Ã‚  One very important parameter that needs to be considered during an earthquake forecast is the focal mechanism. According to a US Geological survey by Dziewonski, Ekstrom Salganik done in 1996, the Forecasts of modern day earthquake cataloguing should include information collected from seismic moment tensor inversions. Focal mechanisms along with time-space-size are all very important parameters of an earthquake. Through them, we can calculate low-frequency seismograms or static deformation of an event.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Among all the proposed methods for the prediction of earthquakes, there is a lack of quantitative theory, therefore, they should all be considered as empirical methods. Some of these methods are earthquake clustering, seismicity variations, changes in seismic velocities, anomalous animal behavior, precursory strain, hydrological signals, and variations in geochemical and electromagnetic signals. One of these methods can be considered a quantitative forecasting method, and that’s earthquake clustering.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Quantitative methods can predict earthquakes far more efficiently because it’s an intricate process. Global tectonic gives us information about the strain accumulation on plate boundaries, and through various geological and geodetic methods, tectonic deformation can be measured. Another quantitative method is studying the low and state frequency deformation which occurs in faraway fields due to earthquakes through the linear elasticity theory, resulting in the prediction of earthquakes, because we are able to study the accumulated strain of earthquake.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Earthquake predictions are done for a few months, a year to a decade or beyond a decade. These timescales depend on the earthquake mitigation measures or the technique used. Seismicity has an invariant scale, that’s why it’s not possible to define a real-time temporal feature scale of earthquakes. There are, however, two physical scales; the first one is connected to the propagation of earthquakes and elastic waves and the second one is about the velocity of tectonic deformation. The first scale comprises seconds or tenths of seconds due to the focal area size and the zone of extreme shaking, while the second one comprises decades or even millenniums because it’s taken from the accumulated strain mostly released by the largest earthquakes.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Evaluation of earthquake predictions should also have a comparative test of null hypothesis in it so that coincidences and chance based results can be disregarded. Temporal clustering of seismicity and spatial variations should be included in the null hypothesis. It is much easier to devise null hypothesis for extreme earthquakes because their clustering is weak for at least a couple of years. Therefore, the Poisson process can at times work on behalf of null hypothesis. Though the spatial inhomogeneity of the epicenter of earthquake does create problems in the process of evaluation.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Computer simulations of earthquakes haven’t proven to be of much help either. The calculations of fluid dynamics can be cross-referenced with the actual velocity field. While simulated synthetic earthquakes may catalogue, it needs to be matched with the real one. The problem is the spontaneous nature of seismicity; the mathematical calculations of earthquake occurrence can only be done in statistical terms. If the computer is to model seismicity, it needs to have synthetic sequence which has the same statistical characteristics of a real earthquake with respect to time and space. This is where the real problem develops.   Ã‚  Ã‚  We now have the computing power and the capability to calculate mass calculations of seismic moment tensor. We can also monitor the connection of stress tensors with earthquake. Recent studies have shown that there is a relationship between stress and earthquakes. Difficulties have occurred due to the translation into the designs of stress accumulation, earthquakes and stress tensors.   People assume that if the weather can be predicted so can the earthquakes, but there are a lot of differences. Earthquakes are asymmetric in terms of time and amount of foreshocks are very negligible. Since seismicity is asymmetric in nature, it is different from the flow of fluids which are turbulent; this is why prediction of earthquakes is more difficult than the prediction of weather. These facts will significantly help you in starting your research. There is just so much that you can write about on the subject of earthquake prediction. We can also understand if selecting a topic is giving you a tough time. Not to worry, the next part will surely give you more information to go on. References: Earthquake Storms: The Fascinating History and Volatile Future of the San Andreas Fault. (2014). S.l.: Pegasus Books. Advances in Earthquake Prediction. (2008). Berlin: Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH KG. Earthquake Prediction with Radio Techniques. (2015). S.l.: John Wiley Sons (Asia) Pte. Earthquake Time Bombs (2015) Hough, S. E. (2010). Predicting the unpredictable: The tumultuous science of earthquake prediction. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Kagan, Y. (2015). Earthquakes: Models, Statistics, Testable Forecasts. Chichester: Wiley Sons. Lomnitz, C. (1994). Fundamentals of earthquake prediction. New York: John Wiley Sons.

Video case Harley-Daivdson Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Video Harley-Daivdson - Case Study Example s world-famous as an American icon, offering an extremely wide range of Harley-Davidson branded products, including both practical and stylish clothing as well as accessories and merchandise. One way that Harley-Davidson connects with its customers is through the Harley owners club. This is supported financially by the company and is the largest club of its type in the world. The presence and activity of the club serves as a way of advertising and connecting both owners of Harley’s and those who see them with the brand. The club gives a large feeling of comradeship and connectedness to those who ride together even though they are often strangers. The club gives the opportunity for members of the company to interact with customers on a face-to-face basis, as well as for the customers to interact with one another. The brand is not the only way that Harley-Davidson builds customer relationships. Another way is through value. Value is an important part of any customer-business relationship, the customer needs to know that what they are buying is worth the money, and that it will last. Harvey-Davidson promotes the concept of value for their motorbike. Their advertising campaigns often focus on the durability and the image of the motorbike, showing a rider driving past just after showing a boat or another vehicle type breaking. 2. A value proposition relates to the concept that the product is of higher value than competing products in the same market. Value can be described as the benefits derived from the product minus the cost, where the cost also includes the risk. When it comes to owning a Harley, the costs can include costs of running, storing and maintaining the bike, however these are similar if not identical costs as for competing companies. The company focuses on ensuring that their bikes are of good quality, and that they do not require excessive repairs, as a consequence not requiring as much cost in this area. However, this is not their main focus in

Cold War and US Intervention in Latin America Essay

Cold War and US Intervention in Latin America - Essay Example The latter created an Eastern Bloc of countries, annexing them and designating them as Satellite countries. It was in fact these countries which later formulated the Warsaw Pact. United States, on the other hand adopted a policy of "containment" of communism, forming alliances with several countries, and eventually signing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. (LaFeber) Communism was gaining rapid popularity immediately after the World War II. To check the spread of Communism, the then US President Harry S Truman, laid down a set of principles pertaining to the US foreign policy, which indirectly authorized the policy of containment of communism. Under the policies of this doctrine, the US intervened in the Civil War of Greece, in an attempt to prevent Greece's falling to the Soviet Union. This intervention was followed by many similar ones to overthrow communist forces. The first of these interventions came in 1954 in the form of Guatemalan coup d'tat, when the United States' Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) organised a military intervention to overthrow Jacobo Arbenz Guzmn, the democratically-elected President of Guatemala. The United States speculated Soviet influence and declared that the policies of the Arbenz government were Communist in nature. This operation lasted for nearly 10 years, during which an army of over 400 fighters was trained to fight against the national forces of Guatemalan. This, coupled with the economic and political sanctions levied by the US, achieved its end when Arbenz officially resigned. The most historical of these interventions was the US response to the Cuban Revolution, which bought the world on the verge of a nuclear war. Tensions grew between the two countries when Cuba became a member of the Non Alignment Movement. The US imposed trade restrictions on Cuba, soon after it implemented some nationalizations. When all trade exchange between US and Cuba ceased in October 1960, Cuba turned to Soviet Union for assistance. This triggered an intense backlash from the US, which launched a full fledged policy of destabilising the Cuban government. This policy incorporated political, economic and military action, including the famous Bay of Pigs Invasion to overpower Fidel Castro's administration. This was followed by a military coup in Brazil in 1964 to overthrow Joo Goulart in 1964, and a similar regime in Dominican Republic in 1965. Besides these, the US also tried to contain Communist influence in Argentina, Ecuador, Honduras, and Peru. Influence of the Civil Rights Movement on the New Left The American Civil Rights Movement, which roughly extended from the 1945 to 1970is one of the most celebrated movements in the history of mankind. It primarily dealt with the African Americans' demand for equality, but along its course, it encompassed several other issues dealing with the basic civil rights. As a matter of fact, it merged with different social movements like the Second Wave of Feminism, the Anti Vietnam war protests, the growing Hippie culture etc. thus, it influenced and in turn was itself influenced by many other movements. The New Left emerged in the United States in the 1960's. It comprised of a group of young liberal, sometimes even radical college students of the US, who adopted a new form of political ideology called the social activism.

Describe the main features of virture project management techniques in Essay

Describe the main features of virture project management techniques in the digital age and provide a critieal reflection on their use in managing projects - Essay Example The study has been conducted in several stages. The first stage was a review of relevant literature, followed by a discussion on specific topics. Leading textbooks on PM and publications in various journals have been referred to. The study has been laid out in several sections. Sections include principal characteristics of virtual and global projects; attributes of virtual teams and communication channels; motivating teams and PM environment; agile PM; change management for agile PM; and conclusion. Throughout the study, the focus has been on the agile aspect of PM. Ideas, human resources, products, services, and skills move freely regardless of boundaries in global economies. The flow of knowledge, products and services, and capital reflects the economic interdependence between organizations and countries. In globalized economies, resources could be obtained in one market and used for business in another. For example, it is possible to purchase manufacturing equipment from Germany, make products in Greece, and sell products all over Europe. In summary, a firm’s competitive environment is shaped by the global economy. A significant change in the practice of PM has been information management. Burke (2008) observed that the availability of powerful software has seen a shift in data processing from a separate department to the professional’s desk. Project planning software helps the project manager plan and control projects. However, it can be effective only when planning and control techniques are clearly understood. Projects are generally subdivided into different phases for ease of management. These phases are collectively termed as the project lifecycle. According to Burke (2008) techniques for PM include critical path method; work breakdown structure; earned value; resource smoothing; and configuration control. According to Cadle and Yeates (2004) characteristics of projects include finite and transitory nature; uniqueness;

Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements

Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Abstract This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China. Contents Abstract iii List of Figures vi List of Tables vi List of Formulas vi 1. Introduction viii 1.1Background viii 1.2 Problem definition x 1.3 Research Objective x 1.3.1 Major research question x 1.3.2 Minor research question xi 1.4 Theoretical Framework xi 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii 1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii 1.4.4 Research Limitations xii 1.5 Thesis Structure xiii 2. Literature Review xiii 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv 2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv 2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx 3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi 3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii 3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii 3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii 3.2 Research Methodology xxvii 3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii 3.2.2 Data Collection xxx 4. Findings and Results xxxi 4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi 5. Conclusions xxxiii 6. Appendix xxxiv 7. References xxxvii List of Figures Figure 1 Trade Creation. Figure 2 Trade Diversion Figure 3 Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation Figure 4 Multiple regression hyperplane List of Tables Table 1 Dummy Variable Interpretation.. Table 2 RTAs assessed and Members Table 3 Regression results of individual years Table 4 Regression results of PCS List of Formulas Formula 1 Gravity model equation Formula 2 Log linear form of the gravity model Formula 3 Current gravity specifications.. Abbreviations CGE: Computable General Equilibrium COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa FTA: Free Trade Agreement GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP: Gross Domestic Product MERCOSUR: Mercado ComÃÆ' ºn del Sur RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement OLS: Ordinary Least Squares PCS: Pooled Cross-Section PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement RIA: Regional Integration Agreement RTA: Regional Trade Agreement SICA: Sistema de IntegraciÃÆ' ³n Centro Americana RTA between Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua Panama and Belize SS: South-South UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WITS: World Integrated Trade Solution WTO: World Trade Organization 1. Introduction Background Four hundred and sixty two RTAs have been notified to the WTO up to February 2010 (WTO,2010). From 1948-1994 the GATT received one hundred and twenty four notifications of RTAs, and since its creation in 1995, the WTO has received over 300 RTA notifications, (WTO,2010). This trend of forming trading blocs is likely to become stronger as more RTAs are currently under negotiation. Of particular interest to economists, and the focus of this paper, are South-South RTAs, that is, RTAs signed between countries of low income levels. There are reasons to believe that SS RTAs may not only fail to stimulate economic growth among member countries, but also hinder growth for these countries. In their book Regional Integration and Development, Winters and Schiffer (2003) state that there is some evidence that North-South RTAs stimulate economic growth in the southern partner, little evidence that North-North RTAs stimulate growth and NO evidence that South-South RTAs do so. Specifically they argue that SS RTAs do not provide partners with access to technology or knowledge that is characteristic of rich countries; SS RTAs are unlikely to add credibility to government policies and may even hinder investment if not accompanied by liberalization of trade with the rest of the world; and, SS RTAs are likely to generate only trade diversion and no trade creation Mayda and Steinberg (2006) argue that SS RTAs are unlikely to provide the positive effects of competition and economies of scale because partner countries are both small and poor. In addition, the loss of fiscal revenues harms the member country economies and finally, SS RTAs are more likely to divert trade rather than create trade. Willmore (1976) and Nicholls (1998) make similar points using the Central American Common Market as an example. Trade creation and trade diversion are concepts that were introduced by Jacob Viner in 1950. Both terms refer to the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of an RTA. In trade creation, goods that were previously produced by a local economy are instead imported from more efficient producers in countries within the RTA. Trade diversion refers to the redirecting of trade from the more efficient producer to a less efficient producer within the RTA. In both cases, trade creation and trade diversion, the trade flows are affected by the reduction of tariffs to member countries typical of RTAs. Trade creation and trade diversion are explained with more detail in section 2.1 of this paper. A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001,2003)), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. As a reference, this paper focuses on the results of Cernat (2001, 2003), Flores (1997), and Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods were used in these studies and the results were mixed. Cernat (2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to assess nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernat (2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. On the other hand Flores (1997), using a CGE analysis, concluded that Mercosur was trade creating. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members. This is different from Cernat (2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. 1.2 Problem definition Do South-South Regional Trade Agreements create trade or divert trade? The literature on this topic is vast and contradictory. Everybody thinks that SS-RTAs are trade diverting. Some papers present evidence of this. Other present evidence that they are actually trade creating. Finally others find evidence of very little trade creation and no significant evidence of trade diversion. With so many RTAS in place and many others underway, it is important to understand the effects of creating these trade blocs. Should poor countries pursue RTAs with poor countries? Are SS RTAs building blocks or stumbling stones towards the world liberalization of trade? 1.3 Research Objective The main objective of this paper is to determine if MERCOSUR, Andean Community, and SICA were trade creating or trade diverting in the years 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007. 1.3.1 Major research question Is there significant evidence of trade creation or trade diversion on the years 1995,1998,1999,2003,2007 for Mercosur, Andean Community and SICA? 1.3.2 Minor research question Is there significant evidence that suggests that RTA members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and their partners? Is there significant evidence that suggests that members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and third countries? Is there significant evidence that suggests that the increase in trade between RTA partners of the above mentioned RTAs is higher than the decrease in trade between RTA members and third countries? 1.4 Theoretical Framework 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade The gravity model uses Newtonian gravity principles to study human behavior. It is widely used by economists and social scientists to predict flows of trade, people, goods, money, and other variables as an effect of changes in economic policies, fiscal policies, new laws, bans and other distortions to the flow of a given variable. The original gravity model of trade assumes that two countries will trade more or less depending on the sizes of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. It was created independently by Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) and augmented in later years to include other independent variables that may cause a change in trade flows. These augmented versions of the basic gravity model may include: population of the two countries, presence of common borders, same language, common colonizer, and others that the researcher regards as relevant. The gravity model specifications used in this paper are similar to those of Cernat(2001) and Cheng Hall (2003). These specifications are used to run OLS regressions on trade data of 1995, 1998, 1998, 2003 and 2007. One set of pooled data including the years mentioned is analyzed using the same gravity specifications. The results of these regressions provide evidence of gross trade creation and diversion as specified by Balassa (1967) 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design The paper uses standard OLS analysis, with bilateral imports as a dependent variable and 17 independent variables: GDP of the importing country, GDP of the exporting country, Population of the importing country and population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of each country pair, Intra_x dummy variable for each RTA, Extra_x dummy variable for each RTA. The values of GDPs, distance and populations are used in their logarithmic form. GDPs and population data was collected from the WB databank. Trade data was collected from UNCTADs database using the WB banks WITS application. 1.4.3 Research Assumptions Costs of transportation are proportional to the great circle distance between economic centers of countries studied All countries have one economic center, namely their capital cities. The error coefficient of the log-linear gravity model used in this paper is normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance for all observations. It is also assumed that error pairs are uncorrelated. GDPs, population, and trade data collected belongs to the population 1.4.4 Research Limitations 1.5 Thesis Structure The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a literature review that explains trade creation and trade diversion, the effect of both and findings of previous papers that assess RTAs. Chapter 3 explains the gravity model used on the paper, how data was collected and organized, and the considerations in analyzing data. Chapter 4 summarizes the findings and Chapter 5 concludes. 2. Literature Review There is extensive literature on RTAs. This literature either predicts the effects of a RTAs using a computable-general equilibrium analysis or they measure the effects of an FTA using aggregate data or commodity level data. The concern of most authors, and the reason why they conduct their research, is that FTAs and specially SS FTAs may divert trade rather than create it. In the former case, purchases from an efficient producing country are replaced by purchases of a less efficient FTA partner. This section serves three purposes: 1. It explains trade creation and trade diversion to the reader so she can better understand the methodology used to assess the selected RTAs. 2. It presents the reader with the results of previous findings so that the reader can compare the results of this paper with previous results of other authors. 3. It gross trade creation and diversion so that the reader can understand the results of the research. 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Trade creation and trade diversion as defined by Viner (1950), refer to changes in flow of trade between nations. Trade creation happens when trade is switched from less efficient producers of one country to more efficient producers in another country a better allocation of resources. In trade diversion trade is shifted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another country -a worsening in the allocation of resources. 2.1.1 Trade Creation Trade creation can be defined as the net welfare gain that results from the initiation of an RTA, both on the production and on the consumption side. Some economists though, think that it is more precise to think of trade creation only as the increase in welfare from the production side (Senior-Nello S, 2010). In this paper the former definition of welfare is considered. To understand trade creation, imagine the following scenario (Figure 1): The country in question, Country X, say Honduras, imports product Q from country M (United States) at price Pw+t, which includes an ad valorem tax and is the same price offered by other nations in the world, including country E (El Salvador). At this price, Honduras imports 20 units and consumes 60. The remaining 40 units are imported from the US. This is illustrated by the Honduran supply and demand lines in Figure 1 and the perfectly elastic supply curve with free trade of El Salvador. It is understood that a change in Honduran imports of product Q cannot affect the world price of product Q. Figure 1. Trade Creation If Honduras signed an RTA with El Salvador and the price of product Q from El Salvador dropped to PE, Honduras would now produce 10 units of product Q, consume 70, and import the difference of 60 units. Because El Salvador now offers a lower price for product Q, Honduras now imports this product from El Salvador and not from the US. The consumer surplus gains of this RTA are represented by areas a+b+c+d. The loss in producer surplus is indicated by area a. The loss of tariff revenue for Honduras is area c. Therefore the net welfare increase of this RTA between El Salvador and Honduras is indicated by triangles b and d. Triangle b represents the amount of production that was shifted from less efficient producers in Honduras to more efficient producers in El Salvador a better allocation of resources. Triangle d represents the increase in consumption of product Q. 2.1.2 Trade Diversion Trade Diversion is illustrated in figure 2. Again the supply and demand lines are those of Honduras for product Q. Line S1 and S2 are the perfectly elastic supply curves of USA and El Salvador respectively, and lines S1+t and S2+t are the tax inclusive supply curves of the same two countries. Figure 2. Trade Diversion Honduras imports product Q from the US at tax inclusive price Pw+t. El Salvador offers product Q at price PE+t and thus does not benefit from Honduran purchases. At price Pw+t Honduras produces 20 units, consumes 60, and imports 40 from the US. If Honduras and El Salvador now form an RTA and do not include the US, tariffs will be removed on imports from El Salvador but not from imports from the US. After forming the RTA Honduras would produce 10 million units, consume 80 million and import 60 million units of product Q from El Salvador at price PE. The RTA has diverted trade from more efficient producers in the US to less efficient producers in El Salvador, so there is a worsening in the allocation of resources. On the other hand 10 million units are now imported from El Salvador instead of being produced at home in Honduras. At the same time 40 million units that were previously imported from the US are now being imported from El Salvador. The welfare loss from trade diversion is reflected rectangle f. The 40 million units that were imported from more efficient producers in the US whose free trade price is $1.00 are now imported from El Salvador at $2.00. The welfare loss is $40 million. The welfare gain from the customs union is calculated as the areas of triangles b and d. Triangle b is the welfare gain in the production side: $5 million. Triangle d is the welfare gain in the consumption side: $10 million. The total impact on welfare as a result of the RTA is given by the sum of the areas of triangles b and d minus the area of rectangle f (b+d-f): welfare gain minus welfare loss. In this case the RTA generated a welfare loss of $25 million. Figure 2 illustrates that the idea of trade creation and trade diversion can be misleading. If, for example, the sum of areas of triangles b and d would be greater than the area of rectangle f, the RTA would cause a net welfare gain. In this scenario, although trade has been diverted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another, the RTA increased welfare for the RTA signing country. 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation Following the lead of Jacob Viner, Balassa (1967) evaluated the effects of the European Common Market with reference to its trade creating and trade diverting effect using Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) model -the gravity model. In his work he developed model that captured substitution of less efficient domestic and foreign suppliers for more efficient foreign suppliers gross trade creation; which is different than Viners definition of trade creation according to which trade is created only at the expense of local producers. To illustrate the difference gross trade creation and trade creation proper as defined by Viner (1950), consider three trading partners of one particular product countries A, B, and C, product Q (See Figure 3). Before signing a RTA with country B, Country A imports product Q from both, Country B and Country C in equal amounts and has 4 local producers of the same product (Figure 3a). In the case of trade creation proper (Figure 3b), after signing a RTA with country B, Country A continues to import equal amounts of product Q from countries B and C but has reduced the number of local producers of the same product. More efficient producers in Country B have absorbed market share from local producers in Country A trade creation proper. Gross trade creation on the other hand (Figure 3c), considers that trade is created not only when local producers are substituted, but also when producers in third countries are substituted. In this case, after signing a RTA with country B, Country A decreases its imports of product Q from Country C and increases imports of the same product from Country B while keeping the same number of local producers. It is important to note that gross trade creation assumes that substituted producers in Country C were less efficient than producers in country B; the contrary would constitute trade diversion. Figure 3. Trade Creation Proper vrs Gross Trade Creation Like in Cernat (2001), this paper evaluates the gross trade creating effects of the assessed RTAs. In his paper, Balassa (1967) provides evidence of trade creation in the European Common Market during six years since the Markets establishment. Again, trade creation applies to the substitution of any less efficient producer for a more efficient one, independent of the producers base country. The why of the expected differences between the results of developed country RTAs and SS RTAs is explained in the next section. 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Cernat (2003), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. This paper uses methods similar to Cernat (2001) and Cheng Wall (2003). In his paper, Cernat(2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to asses nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernats(2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. Mayda and Steinberg(2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members (Mayda and Steinberg, 2003). This is different from Cernats(2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology ***Intro*** Problem Definition Research Objective Research Questions 3.1 Theoretical Framework 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building Figure 4. Regression Hyperplane Multiple regression analysis is a method of inferential statistics that measures the relationship between two or more independent variables and one dependent variable. The multiple regression model is given by: Where: y = dependent variable = regression constant of the population = regression coefficient for each variable xj=1,2,k k = number of independent variables = error of the model Different from a simple regression equation -which forms a straight line in a two-dimensional space to represent the linear relationship between two variables the multiple regression model forms a hyperplane in a multidimensional space (Figure 4). This hyperplane represents the relationship between the dependent variable and k independent variables. To build a multiple regression model, that is, to construct a mathematical equation that represents the relationship between independent and dependent variables, a researcher must decide: The question that needs to be answered The potential independent variables What is a representative sample of the population should be at least four times the number of independent variables (Groebner, et al, 2008) The model used in this paper is well known and widely used by social scientists to measure the flow of various types of variables. This model is explained in section 3.1.3. 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis To ensure the significance of an OLS regression analysis results, the following evaluation criteria are usually used (Groebner, et al, 2008): The coefficient of determination (R2 and R2 adjusted) Significance of the overall model (F-test) Significance of individual variables (t-tests) Size of the standard deviation of the model Multicollinearity of variables The coefficient of determination measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained with the independent variables used by the model. The value of R2 may range from 0-1, with 1 representing a perfect linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Higher values of R2 are preferred as they would indicate that the chosen independent variables explain better the variations in the dependent variables. A derivate indicator, called adjusted R2, takes into account the number of independent variables in the model, and their contribution the variations in the dependent variable. Because R2 increases when independent variables are added to the model, even if the new variables have no relationship with the dependent variable, adjusted R2 evaluates the model more precisely. The Significance of the overall model can be determined by comparing the Significance F value given in the regression output of a statistical software application, and the critical value for a given alpha level. The critical value for a given alpha level is determined using t-tables and statistical procedures explained in Groebner (2008). The Significance of individual variables is determined by comparing their calculated t-values with the critical t-value of the model. If their calculated t-values are greater than their critical t-values the variable is considered significant. To determine the critical t-values of independent variables, degrees of freedom need to be calculated and interpolated with the desired level of significance in a t-table. For detailed explanations see Groebner (2008). The size of the standard deviation of the model measures the dispersion of observed values of the dependent variable, and the predicted values for the same variable. It is up to the researcher to determine an acceptable range for the standard error estimation. Multicollinearity occurs when two variables provide overlapping information to explain the variation in the dependent variable. To measure multicollinearity the researcher can use the VIF as an indicator. Generally, if the VIF 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade Following Isaac Newtons principle of gravity, according to which two bodies will attract each other more when their sizes are increased and the distance between them is shortened; the gravity model explains trade flow between two countries based on the size of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. The equation representation of the gravity model of trade is: (Formula 1) Where Fg represents trade flow, G is the constant, m1 and m2 are the economic dimensions of the two countries in question, and d is the distance between the two countries. In its basic log-linear form, the gravity equation is as follows: (Formula2) Where is the bilateral trade flow between countries i and j at time t, ÃŽÂ ± is the constant, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country i, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country j, is the natural logarithm of the distance between country i and country j, and ÃŽÂ µ is the normally distributed error. This basic gravity model is usually augmented by including other variables like adjacency, common language, colonial links, common currency, and RTA membership among others. Different authors have suggested many different specifications for the gravity model of trade  [1]  , however there is no consensus about which model specification is more accurate and serves best in assessing RTAs. Moreover other authors have suggested that the gravity model is biased due to endogeneity and reverse causality (Magee, 2003) and have led others to use entirely different methods to asses RTAs (Mayda Steinberg (2006). This paper uses a gravity model specification that is similar to Cernat (2001) but considers Cheng Walls (2003) suggestions of eliminating dummy variables that might capture unintended trade distorting variables. To assess trade creation and trade diversion in nine RTAs, Cernat(2001) adds two dummy variables to an already augmented specification of the model: Intra_RTA and Extra_RTA. The Intra_RTA dummy becomes a 1 when both, the importing and the exporting countries, are partners in the RTA being assessed by the two dummies. The Extra_RTA dummy becomes one when the importing country is part of the assessed RTA but the exporter is a third country. The model uses bilateral trade flows as a dependent variable and 18 independent variables: GDP of importing country, GDP of the exporting country, GDP per capita of the importing country, GDP per capita of the exporting country, Population of the importing country, population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of both countries, an adjacency dummy variable, a common language dummy variable, nine Intra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed), and nine Extra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed). All non-dummy variables expressed in their logarithmic form. In theory, the Intra_RTA dummies will capture the effect that the assessed RTA had on trade between partners of the RTA; and the Extra_RTA dummy captures the effect of the same RTA on trade of RTA members with third countries. To diagnose a RTA as trade crating or trade diverting, Cernat (2001) designed an Intra-Extra coefficient table (Table# in this paper). According to this table, if a trade agreement increased trade between its partners at the expense of third countries -diverted trade, the Intra_RTA dummy should be positive and the Extra_RTA dummy negative. If the agreement created trade instead, the coefficients of both dummies would be positive. Coefficient Extra_RTA Intra_RTA Sign + + Trade creation and trade expansion Trade diversion Trade expansion Trade contraction Table 1: Dummy Variable Interpretation Cheng Wall (2003) use a fixed-effect panel data analysis to measure the effect on trade of RTAs over time. Their proposed model allegedly controls the heterogeneity bias in the gravity model of trade. In it, Cheng Wall (2003) drop all dummy variables and even drop the distance variable. They argue that these variables bias the gravity model and they motivate their argument in a number of ways. First, they reason that economic distances are too hard to measure with accuracy because big countries have many economic centers, that are thousands of miles apart and that serve as trade centers for diffe Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Effect on Trade Flows of Regional Trade Agreements Abstract This paper studies the effect on trade flows of RTAs signed between developing economies. It uses a variation of the gravity model of trade to asses five RTAs: Mercosur, The Andean Community, SICA, the EU, Chile-China. Contents Abstract iii List of Figures vi List of Tables vi List of Formulas vi 1. Introduction viii 1.1Background viii 1.2 Problem definition x 1.3 Research Objective x 1.3.1 Major research question x 1.3.2 Minor research question xi 1.4 Theoretical Framework xi 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade xi 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design xii 1.4.3 Research Assumptions xii 1.4.4 Research Limitations xii 1.5 Thesis Structure xiii 2. Literature Review xiii 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion xiv 2.1.1 Trade Creation xiv 2.1.2 Trade Diversion xvii 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation xviii 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs xx 3.Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology xxi 3.1 Theoretical Framework xxi 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building xxi 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis xxii 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade xxiii 3.1.4 Research Assumptions xxvii 3.1.5 Research Limitations xxvii 3.2 Research Methodology xxvii 3.2.1 Research Type and Approach xxvii 3.2.2 Data Collection xxx 4. Findings and Results xxxi 4.1 The effect of RTAs xxxi 5. Conclusions xxxiii 6. Appendix xxxiv 7. References xxxvii List of Figures Figure 1 Trade Creation. Figure 2 Trade Diversion Figure 3 Trade Creation Proper vrs. Gross Trade Creation Figure 4 Multiple regression hyperplane List of Tables Table 1 Dummy Variable Interpretation.. Table 2 RTAs assessed and Members Table 3 Regression results of individual years Table 4 Regression results of PCS List of Formulas Formula 1 Gravity model equation Formula 2 Log linear form of the gravity model Formula 3 Current gravity specifications.. Abbreviations CGE: Computable General Equilibrium COMESA: Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa FTA: Free Trade Agreement GATT: General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP: Gross Domestic Product MERCOSUR: Mercado ComÃÆ' ºn del Sur RTA signed between Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay NAFTA: North American Free Trade Agreement OLS: Ordinary Least Squares PCS: Pooled Cross-Section PTA: Preferential Trade Agreement RIA: Regional Integration Agreement RTA: Regional Trade Agreement SICA: Sistema de IntegraciÃÆ' ³n Centro Americana RTA between Honduras, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua Panama and Belize SS: South-South UNCTAD: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development WB: World Bank WITS: World Integrated Trade Solution WTO: World Trade Organization 1. Introduction Background Four hundred and sixty two RTAs have been notified to the WTO up to February 2010 (WTO,2010). From 1948-1994 the GATT received one hundred and twenty four notifications of RTAs, and since its creation in 1995, the WTO has received over 300 RTA notifications, (WTO,2010). This trend of forming trading blocs is likely to become stronger as more RTAs are currently under negotiation. Of particular interest to economists, and the focus of this paper, are South-South RTAs, that is, RTAs signed between countries of low income levels. There are reasons to believe that SS RTAs may not only fail to stimulate economic growth among member countries, but also hinder growth for these countries. In their book Regional Integration and Development, Winters and Schiffer (2003) state that there is some evidence that North-South RTAs stimulate economic growth in the southern partner, little evidence that North-North RTAs stimulate growth and NO evidence that South-South RTAs do so. Specifically they argue that SS RTAs do not provide partners with access to technology or knowledge that is characteristic of rich countries; SS RTAs are unlikely to add credibility to government policies and may even hinder investment if not accompanied by liberalization of trade with the rest of the world; and, SS RTAs are likely to generate only trade diversion and no trade creation Mayda and Steinberg (2006) argue that SS RTAs are unlikely to provide the positive effects of competition and economies of scale because partner countries are both small and poor. In addition, the loss of fiscal revenues harms the member country economies and finally, SS RTAs are more likely to divert trade rather than create trade. Willmore (1976) and Nicholls (1998) make similar points using the Central American Common Market as an example. Trade creation and trade diversion are concepts that were introduced by Jacob Viner in 1950. Both terms refer to the redirection of trade flows as a consequence of an RTA. In trade creation, goods that were previously produced by a local economy are instead imported from more efficient producers in countries within the RTA. Trade diversion refers to the redirecting of trade from the more efficient producer to a less efficient producer within the RTA. In both cases, trade creation and trade diversion, the trade flows are affected by the reduction of tariffs to member countries typical of RTAs. Trade creation and trade diversion are explained with more detail in section 2.1 of this paper. A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001,2003)), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. As a reference, this paper focuses on the results of Cernat (2001, 2003), Flores (1997), and Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods were used in these studies and the results were mixed. Cernat (2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to assess nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernat (2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. On the other hand Flores (1997), using a CGE analysis, concluded that Mercosur was trade creating. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members. This is different from Cernat (2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. 1.2 Problem definition Do South-South Regional Trade Agreements create trade or divert trade? The literature on this topic is vast and contradictory. Everybody thinks that SS-RTAs are trade diverting. Some papers present evidence of this. Other present evidence that they are actually trade creating. Finally others find evidence of very little trade creation and no significant evidence of trade diversion. With so many RTAS in place and many others underway, it is important to understand the effects of creating these trade blocs. Should poor countries pursue RTAs with poor countries? Are SS RTAs building blocks or stumbling stones towards the world liberalization of trade? 1.3 Research Objective The main objective of this paper is to determine if MERCOSUR, Andean Community, and SICA were trade creating or trade diverting in the years 1995, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2007. 1.3.1 Major research question Is there significant evidence of trade creation or trade diversion on the years 1995,1998,1999,2003,2007 for Mercosur, Andean Community and SICA? 1.3.2 Minor research question Is there significant evidence that suggests that RTA members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and their partners? Is there significant evidence that suggests that members of the above mentioned RTAs increased trade between them and third countries? Is there significant evidence that suggests that the increase in trade between RTA partners of the above mentioned RTAs is higher than the decrease in trade between RTA members and third countries? 1.4 Theoretical Framework 1.4.1 The Gravity model of trade The gravity model uses Newtonian gravity principles to study human behavior. It is widely used by economists and social scientists to predict flows of trade, people, goods, money, and other variables as an effect of changes in economic policies, fiscal policies, new laws, bans and other distortions to the flow of a given variable. The original gravity model of trade assumes that two countries will trade more or less depending on the sizes of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. It was created independently by Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) and augmented in later years to include other independent variables that may cause a change in trade flows. These augmented versions of the basic gravity model may include: population of the two countries, presence of common borders, same language, common colonizer, and others that the researcher regards as relevant. The gravity model specifications used in this paper are similar to those of Cernat(2001) and Cheng Hall (2003). These specifications are used to run OLS regressions on trade data of 1995, 1998, 1998, 2003 and 2007. One set of pooled data including the years mentioned is analyzed using the same gravity specifications. The results of these regressions provide evidence of gross trade creation and diversion as specified by Balassa (1967) 1.4.2 Research Methodology and Design The paper uses standard OLS analysis, with bilateral imports as a dependent variable and 17 independent variables: GDP of the importing country, GDP of the exporting country, Population of the importing country and population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of each country pair, Intra_x dummy variable for each RTA, Extra_x dummy variable for each RTA. The values of GDPs, distance and populations are used in their logarithmic form. GDPs and population data was collected from the WB databank. Trade data was collected from UNCTADs database using the WB banks WITS application. 1.4.3 Research Assumptions Costs of transportation are proportional to the great circle distance between economic centers of countries studied All countries have one economic center, namely their capital cities. The error coefficient of the log-linear gravity model used in this paper is normally distributed with a mean of zero and constant variance for all observations. It is also assumed that error pairs are uncorrelated. GDPs, population, and trade data collected belongs to the population 1.4.4 Research Limitations 1.5 Thesis Structure The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a literature review that explains trade creation and trade diversion, the effect of both and findings of previous papers that assess RTAs. Chapter 3 explains the gravity model used on the paper, how data was collected and organized, and the considerations in analyzing data. Chapter 4 summarizes the findings and Chapter 5 concludes. 2. Literature Review There is extensive literature on RTAs. This literature either predicts the effects of a RTAs using a computable-general equilibrium analysis or they measure the effects of an FTA using aggregate data or commodity level data. The concern of most authors, and the reason why they conduct their research, is that FTAs and specially SS FTAs may divert trade rather than create it. In the former case, purchases from an efficient producing country are replaced by purchases of a less efficient FTA partner. This section serves three purposes: 1. It explains trade creation and trade diversion to the reader so she can better understand the methodology used to assess the selected RTAs. 2. It presents the reader with the results of previous findings so that the reader can compare the results of this paper with previous results of other authors. 3. It gross trade creation and diversion so that the reader can understand the results of the research. 2.1 Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Trade creation and trade diversion as defined by Viner (1950), refer to changes in flow of trade between nations. Trade creation happens when trade is switched from less efficient producers of one country to more efficient producers in another country a better allocation of resources. In trade diversion trade is shifted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another country -a worsening in the allocation of resources. 2.1.1 Trade Creation Trade creation can be defined as the net welfare gain that results from the initiation of an RTA, both on the production and on the consumption side. Some economists though, think that it is more precise to think of trade creation only as the increase in welfare from the production side (Senior-Nello S, 2010). In this paper the former definition of welfare is considered. To understand trade creation, imagine the following scenario (Figure 1): The country in question, Country X, say Honduras, imports product Q from country M (United States) at price Pw+t, which includes an ad valorem tax and is the same price offered by other nations in the world, including country E (El Salvador). At this price, Honduras imports 20 units and consumes 60. The remaining 40 units are imported from the US. This is illustrated by the Honduran supply and demand lines in Figure 1 and the perfectly elastic supply curve with free trade of El Salvador. It is understood that a change in Honduran imports of product Q cannot affect the world price of product Q. Figure 1. Trade Creation If Honduras signed an RTA with El Salvador and the price of product Q from El Salvador dropped to PE, Honduras would now produce 10 units of product Q, consume 70, and import the difference of 60 units. Because El Salvador now offers a lower price for product Q, Honduras now imports this product from El Salvador and not from the US. The consumer surplus gains of this RTA are represented by areas a+b+c+d. The loss in producer surplus is indicated by area a. The loss of tariff revenue for Honduras is area c. Therefore the net welfare increase of this RTA between El Salvador and Honduras is indicated by triangles b and d. Triangle b represents the amount of production that was shifted from less efficient producers in Honduras to more efficient producers in El Salvador a better allocation of resources. Triangle d represents the increase in consumption of product Q. 2.1.2 Trade Diversion Trade Diversion is illustrated in figure 2. Again the supply and demand lines are those of Honduras for product Q. Line S1 and S2 are the perfectly elastic supply curves of USA and El Salvador respectively, and lines S1+t and S2+t are the tax inclusive supply curves of the same two countries. Figure 2. Trade Diversion Honduras imports product Q from the US at tax inclusive price Pw+t. El Salvador offers product Q at price PE+t and thus does not benefit from Honduran purchases. At price Pw+t Honduras produces 20 units, consumes 60, and imports 40 from the US. If Honduras and El Salvador now form an RTA and do not include the US, tariffs will be removed on imports from El Salvador but not from imports from the US. After forming the RTA Honduras would produce 10 million units, consume 80 million and import 60 million units of product Q from El Salvador at price PE. The RTA has diverted trade from more efficient producers in the US to less efficient producers in El Salvador, so there is a worsening in the allocation of resources. On the other hand 10 million units are now imported from El Salvador instead of being produced at home in Honduras. At the same time 40 million units that were previously imported from the US are now being imported from El Salvador. The welfare loss from trade diversion is reflected rectangle f. The 40 million units that were imported from more efficient producers in the US whose free trade price is $1.00 are now imported from El Salvador at $2.00. The welfare loss is $40 million. The welfare gain from the customs union is calculated as the areas of triangles b and d. Triangle b is the welfare gain in the production side: $5 million. Triangle d is the welfare gain in the consumption side: $10 million. The total impact on welfare as a result of the RTA is given by the sum of the areas of triangles b and d minus the area of rectangle f (b+d-f): welfare gain minus welfare loss. In this case the RTA generated a welfare loss of $25 million. Figure 2 illustrates that the idea of trade creation and trade diversion can be misleading. If, for example, the sum of areas of triangles b and d would be greater than the area of rectangle f, the RTA would cause a net welfare gain. In this scenario, although trade has been diverted from more efficient producers in one country to less efficient producers in another, the RTA increased welfare for the RTA signing country. 2.1.3 Gross Trade Creation Following the lead of Jacob Viner, Balassa (1967) evaluated the effects of the European Common Market with reference to its trade creating and trade diverting effect using Tinbergen (1962) and PÃÆ' ¶yhÃÆ' ¶nen (1963) model -the gravity model. In his work he developed model that captured substitution of less efficient domestic and foreign suppliers for more efficient foreign suppliers gross trade creation; which is different than Viners definition of trade creation according to which trade is created only at the expense of local producers. To illustrate the difference gross trade creation and trade creation proper as defined by Viner (1950), consider three trading partners of one particular product countries A, B, and C, product Q (See Figure 3). Before signing a RTA with country B, Country A imports product Q from both, Country B and Country C in equal amounts and has 4 local producers of the same product (Figure 3a). In the case of trade creation proper (Figure 3b), after signing a RTA with country B, Country A continues to import equal amounts of product Q from countries B and C but has reduced the number of local producers of the same product. More efficient producers in Country B have absorbed market share from local producers in Country A trade creation proper. Gross trade creation on the other hand (Figure 3c), considers that trade is created not only when local producers are substituted, but also when producers in third countries are substituted. In this case, after signing a RTA with country B, Country A decreases its imports of product Q from Country C and increases imports of the same product from Country B while keeping the same number of local producers. It is important to note that gross trade creation assumes that substituted producers in Country C were less efficient than producers in country B; the contrary would constitute trade diversion. Figure 3. Trade Creation Proper vrs Gross Trade Creation Like in Cernat (2001), this paper evaluates the gross trade creating effects of the assessed RTAs. In his paper, Balassa (1967) provides evidence of trade creation in the European Common Market during six years since the Markets establishment. Again, trade creation applies to the substitution of any less efficient producer for a more efficient one, independent of the producers base country. The why of the expected differences between the results of developed country RTAs and SS RTAs is explained in the next section. 2.2 Empirical Evidence from SS RTAs A number of studies have been conducted to assess the effects of SS RTAs in partner countries -most of them attempt to determine if the RTAs were trade creating or trade diverting e.g. Evans (1998), Lewis et al. (1999), Flores (1997), Cernat (2001), Subramanian and Tamirisa (2001), Cernat (2003), Mayda and Steinberg (2006). Different methods have been used and the results are mixed. This paper uses methods similar to Cernat (2001) and Cheng Wall (2003). In his paper, Cernat(2001) used the log-linear form of the gravity equation to asses nine SS RTAs. He finds evidence that suggests that SS RTAs are less trade diverting than theoretically predicted. Cernats(2001) findings suggest that Mercosur and the Andean Community were overall, trade diverting. Mayda and Steinberg(2006) use a difference-in-difference estimation strategy at commodity level to assess the impact of COMESA on Ugandan imports. They present evidence that South-South trade agreements create positive but little economic gains, through changes in trade patterns, for their members (Mayda and Steinberg, 2003). This is different from Cernats(2001) results, which indicate that imports into COMESA members from third countries were on average 30 per cent higher than those predicted without the trade diversion dummy variable. Mayda and Steinberg (2006) find evidence that no trade diversion takes place in COMESA. The mixed results from these studies, the increasing number of SS RTAs underway and the high number of countries wanting to join completely or in part in these RTAs poses the following questions: Why do policy makers from these countries advocate in favor of these RTAs? Should these RTAs be pursued?, and the still not categorically answered question: Are South-South Regional Trade Agreements trade creating or trade diverting? Using the gravity model, this paper aims to get evidence from SS RTAs from the Americas. Theoretical Framework and Research Methodology ***Intro*** Problem Definition Research Objective Research Questions 3.1 Theoretical Framework 3.1.1 Multiple Regression Analysis and Model Building Figure 4. Regression Hyperplane Multiple regression analysis is a method of inferential statistics that measures the relationship between two or more independent variables and one dependent variable. The multiple regression model is given by: Where: y = dependent variable = regression constant of the population = regression coefficient for each variable xj=1,2,k k = number of independent variables = error of the model Different from a simple regression equation -which forms a straight line in a two-dimensional space to represent the linear relationship between two variables the multiple regression model forms a hyperplane in a multidimensional space (Figure 4). This hyperplane represents the relationship between the dependent variable and k independent variables. To build a multiple regression model, that is, to construct a mathematical equation that represents the relationship between independent and dependent variables, a researcher must decide: The question that needs to be answered The potential independent variables What is a representative sample of the population should be at least four times the number of independent variables (Groebner, et al, 2008) The model used in this paper is well known and widely used by social scientists to measure the flow of various types of variables. This model is explained in section 3.1.3. 3.1.2 Regression Model Diagnosis To ensure the significance of an OLS regression analysis results, the following evaluation criteria are usually used (Groebner, et al, 2008): The coefficient of determination (R2 and R2 adjusted) Significance of the overall model (F-test) Significance of individual variables (t-tests) Size of the standard deviation of the model Multicollinearity of variables The coefficient of determination measures the proportion of variation in the dependent variable that can be explained with the independent variables used by the model. The value of R2 may range from 0-1, with 1 representing a perfect linear relationship between dependent and independent variables. Higher values of R2 are preferred as they would indicate that the chosen independent variables explain better the variations in the dependent variables. A derivate indicator, called adjusted R2, takes into account the number of independent variables in the model, and their contribution the variations in the dependent variable. Because R2 increases when independent variables are added to the model, even if the new variables have no relationship with the dependent variable, adjusted R2 evaluates the model more precisely. The Significance of the overall model can be determined by comparing the Significance F value given in the regression output of a statistical software application, and the critical value for a given alpha level. The critical value for a given alpha level is determined using t-tables and statistical procedures explained in Groebner (2008). The Significance of individual variables is determined by comparing their calculated t-values with the critical t-value of the model. If their calculated t-values are greater than their critical t-values the variable is considered significant. To determine the critical t-values of independent variables, degrees of freedom need to be calculated and interpolated with the desired level of significance in a t-table. For detailed explanations see Groebner (2008). The size of the standard deviation of the model measures the dispersion of observed values of the dependent variable, and the predicted values for the same variable. It is up to the researcher to determine an acceptable range for the standard error estimation. Multicollinearity occurs when two variables provide overlapping information to explain the variation in the dependent variable. To measure multicollinearity the researcher can use the VIF as an indicator. Generally, if the VIF 3.1.3 The Gravity Model of Trade Following Isaac Newtons principle of gravity, according to which two bodies will attract each other more when their sizes are increased and the distance between them is shortened; the gravity model explains trade flow between two countries based on the size of their economies and the distance between their economic centers. The equation representation of the gravity model of trade is: (Formula 1) Where Fg represents trade flow, G is the constant, m1 and m2 are the economic dimensions of the two countries in question, and d is the distance between the two countries. In its basic log-linear form, the gravity equation is as follows: (Formula2) Where is the bilateral trade flow between countries i and j at time t, ÃŽÂ ± is the constant, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country i, is the natural logarithm of the GDP of country j, is the natural logarithm of the distance between country i and country j, and ÃŽÂ µ is the normally distributed error. This basic gravity model is usually augmented by including other variables like adjacency, common language, colonial links, common currency, and RTA membership among others. Different authors have suggested many different specifications for the gravity model of trade  [1]  , however there is no consensus about which model specification is more accurate and serves best in assessing RTAs. Moreover other authors have suggested that the gravity model is biased due to endogeneity and reverse causality (Magee, 2003) and have led others to use entirely different methods to asses RTAs (Mayda Steinberg (2006). This paper uses a gravity model specification that is similar to Cernat (2001) but considers Cheng Walls (2003) suggestions of eliminating dummy variables that might capture unintended trade distorting variables. To assess trade creation and trade diversion in nine RTAs, Cernat(2001) adds two dummy variables to an already augmented specification of the model: Intra_RTA and Extra_RTA. The Intra_RTA dummy becomes a 1 when both, the importing and the exporting countries, are partners in the RTA being assessed by the two dummies. The Extra_RTA dummy becomes one when the importing country is part of the assessed RTA but the exporter is a third country. The model uses bilateral trade flows as a dependent variable and 18 independent variables: GDP of importing country, GDP of the exporting country, GDP per capita of the importing country, GDP per capita of the exporting country, Population of the importing country, population of the exporting country, distance between the capital cities of both countries, an adjacency dummy variable, a common language dummy variable, nine Intra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed), and nine Extra_RTA dummy variables (one for each RTA assessed). All non-dummy variables expressed in their logarithmic form. In theory, the Intra_RTA dummies will capture the effect that the assessed RTA had on trade between partners of the RTA; and the Extra_RTA dummy captures the effect of the same RTA on trade of RTA members with third countries. To diagnose a RTA as trade crating or trade diverting, Cernat (2001) designed an Intra-Extra coefficient table (Table# in this paper). According to this table, if a trade agreement increased trade between its partners at the expense of third countries -diverted trade, the Intra_RTA dummy should be positive and the Extra_RTA dummy negative. If the agreement created trade instead, the coefficients of both dummies would be positive. Coefficient Extra_RTA Intra_RTA Sign + + Trade creation and trade expansion Trade diversion Trade expansion Trade contraction Table 1: Dummy Variable Interpretation Cheng Wall (2003) use a fixed-effect panel data analysis to measure the effect on trade of RTAs over time. Their proposed model allegedly controls the heterogeneity bias in the gravity model of trade. In it, Cheng Wall (2003) drop all dummy variables and even drop the distance variable. They argue that these variables bias the gravity model and they motivate their argument in a number of ways. First, they reason that economic distances are too hard to measure with accuracy because big countries have many economic centers, that are thousands of miles apart and that serve as trade centers for diffe

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Sign of the crimes Members of a citizens anticrime group in Linesville, PA., have a new mystery to solve: Who stole their crime watch signs? Five signs and poles were removed from roadsides around Linesville in Crawford County. "We don't know if it was somebody trying to get even," said Ed Barker, chairman of the North Shenango Township Crime Watch chapter. "We don't think it was kids, because the signs were gone, post and all." You're under abreast Michael Copp, 18, Sheffield Lake, Ohio, was charged with stealing his mother's credit card to pay for his 18-year-old girlfriend's breast enlargement surgery. According to a police report, Copp's mother, Gaelene Pakrandt, told officers she had closed the account because her son charged $2,100 in car repair bills. Police said Copp reopened the account without his mother's knowledge after he found the card in a drawer. He charged $2,496 to the card to cover the surgery. Most items purchased with a stolen credit card are confiscated and returned by police. But this case is a little different. Death race 2000 PHILADELPHIA, PA - Tamika Ross, 26, is being held for trial on charges of the murder of Nathaniel Davis. Apparently Ross ran over Davis' hat with her car. When Davis confronted the driver a dispute erupted and Davis allegedly hit Ross. That's when the mother of five took matters into her own hands and ran him over with her car, killing him. When questioned, police quoted Ross as saying, "He hit me so I ran him down." Dead man gets 2 years A man was sentenced last week to two years in prison for faking his death three times to beat drunk driving charges. Peter C. Gentry was first arrested in 1991, but an official looking death certificate sent to authorities said he had died in a Los Angeles auto crash, and the case was dismissed. In 1994, he was arrested again and sent in another death certificate. A year later, Gentry was again arrested and supposedly died this time of "denzor hemorrhagic fever" in Africa. There is no such disease. Soul-mate! not cellmate! Karim Lackey, Philadelphia, PA was acquitted last week of fatally shooting Phillip Shirdan, 42, after his lawyer claimed that Lackey had been the victim of "mistaken identity." Two of Lackey's alibi witnesses claimed they were with him watching the "Soul Train Music Awards" on TV at the time Shirdan was killed in a lounge.

Group work in Primary Schools

Group work, known to others as collaborative or concerted acquisition, is defined as a â€Å" state of affairs in which, two or more people learn or attempt to larn something together † [ Wikipedia Contributors, 2010 ] . This paper focuses on how on the job collaboratively impacts both instruction and acquisition in primary schools. It describes the background to the development of collaborative acquisition and high spots the techniques frequently employed. The rules to effectual group work are explained, with both advantages and disadvantages noted. Collaborative acquisition is a pedagogical scheme which utilizes a assortment of larning activities to heighten a pupil ‘s apprehension of a peculiar subject. This is an betterment to traditional acquisition theoretical accounts besides defined as non-interactive talks, where cognition is gained from direct talks or the reading of books and articles. Traditional larning bids really small interaction or engagement from the pupils, hence a batch or really small may be learnt depending on the person. Collaborative larning accordingly stands as a constructivist attack to acquisition, and is identified as arising from a constructivist epistemology, as pupils are asked to take part and lend to their ain acquisition and development. The thoughts of bookmans such as Burner, Kohlberg, Piaget and Vygotsky are used in the development of collaborative acquisition, which basically implies that both the pupil and the environment are actively dynamic entities in the acquisition procedure as the pupil tries to portray the lessons. This procedure requires that cognition be discovered and translated utilizing linguistic communication and other larning Plutos to which the pupils can actively associate. Lawrence Kohlberg researched the moral determinations made by kids. His probe is such that â€Å" he developed an interview procedure offering a figure of scenarios, each with a moral quandary † for which he had pre-determined replies. He realized that six phases of moral development existed and that some people are unable to make most advanced degrees of ethical reading. He thereby concluded that ; â€Å" the development of moral concluding happens in a peculiar sequence, and that each measure of the manner is a precursor to the following † [ KidsDevelopment.co.uk, 2010 ] . Jean Piaget ‘s theory of Cognitive Development suggests that persons go through a series of phases on their manner to independent thought. Piaget provinces that â€Å" all cognition refering world consequences from actions or operations upon it, which makes it alter, uncovering its stable and variational belongingss † ( Piaget, 1980 p222 ) . Lev Vygotsky believed that socialisation increases cognition and frequently clip changes a kid ‘s ideas and behaviors. Vygotsky suggests that larning is achieved in three ways ; imitative, instructed and collaborative. Imitative larning involves the pupil merely copying what was taught and instructed acquisition involves the pupil following waies antecedently given. Vygotsky ‘s work was focussed on two of import thoughts. First being the Zone of Proximal Development ( ZPD ) ; this describes the degree of distinction between a job that a pupil can work out independently and a job in which a pupil will necessitate the aid of others. ZPD is frequently identified as an person ‘s degree of existent competence relation to their degree for possible development. The 2nd thought is known as staging and describes the facet of support given to pupils when it is desired. Group work allows pupils to work together in little squads, uniting people with changing backgrounds, experiences, proficient and rational competences, towards the attainment of a specific aim. Each member of the squad has the duty of larning the stuff for himself, while besides assisting other members to clearly understand the lesson therefore making an â€Å" ambiance of accomplishment † ( Palmer, Peters and Streetman. 2008 ) . Students thereby derive both cognition and societal accomplishments. The usage of group treatments helps pupils to explicate constructs and thoughts by supplying immediate feedbacks. Students learn how to trouble-shoot hand in glove in order to happen the best solution to a job. â€Å" When pupils formulate their ain solutions in this mode, they are genuinely believing critically ( Davis, Mahler & A ; Noddings, 1990 ) . Swortzel expresses that there are two major theoretical attacks to group work â€Å" Motivational and Cognitive † ( Swortzel, 1997 ) . Group work is seen as motivational because pupils recognize that their success or failure in the attainment of the specified end is dependent on them being able to work together as a squad. They thereby encourage each other to acquire the assigned undertakings done decently and on clip, in so making â€Å" concerted acquisition additions pupils ‘ motive to make academic work † ( Johnson, Johnson & A ; Holubec, 1986 ) . The cognitive attack suggests that through group work pupils go more critical with their thought. Students are stimulated to believe ‘outside the box ‘ , therefore geting increased degrees of perceptual experience, consciousness, and concluding and judgment abilities. Group treatments are really synergistic with each person showing their point of view. Within a diverse group, there will be doubtless changing sentiments accordingly foregrounding attacks to the same subject. A collaborative model must foremost be established before the execution of collaborative larning techniques. The instructor should research collaborative acquisition and observer other instructors who have already implement the usage of group work. The instructor should hold on a good apprehension of the advantages and disadvantages to group work and must develop a acute grasp for the technique of scaffolding. The instructor so needs to make up one's mind if collaborative acquisition is ideal for the topic being taught, the type of pupils and take into history schoolroom limitations, if any. Teachers implementing collaborative acquisition are expected to be competent in the undermentioned countries: Stipulating instructional aims Determining group size and assign pupils to groups Determining Group Size and Assign Students to Group Classroom agreement Planing instructional stuffs to advance Interdependence Delegating group functions Delegating undertakings Structuring positive mutuality and answerability Explaining the standards for success Stipulating desired behaviors Before implementing collaborative larning the instructor should explicate to the pupils their determination for the usage of group work and explicate the advantages and disadvantages. The finding of group sizes may change depending on the nature of the undertaking and the work load. Groups can be homogenous or heterogenous, grouping pupils with similar involvements and strengths or they may be wholly indiscriminately selected. Once groups are established they normally do non alter really frequently, so as to let pupils to develop a constructive working relationship with each other. It is of import that the furniture in the schoolroom be organized in a manner which allows the pupils to work as a unit, sooner confronting each other, whilst leting for their flexible motions. Teachers should take into history the bing resources needed for successful undertaking completion and guarantee that they are readily accessible by the groups. The instructions and stuffs a instructor chooses for a group should guarantee that each member of the group makes a meaningful part and that single assignments within the group will be equally distributed. Teachers should construction positive mutuality and answerability by regularly proving both the groups and the members of the group for apprehension of the capable affair. Members should be encouraged to be able to actively support the stance of the group and their ain. The standards for success of the group should be clearly communicated and measures put into topographic point to measure the group ‘s public presentation as a unit every bit good as the single public presentations of the members. Once the groups have been established, instructors need to supervise the behavior of the pupils and aid with demands while monitoring. In so making, instructors may help with the answering of inquiries and supply and jump point of position or sentiment. Teachers may besides supply feedback on the work completed or the advancement made. Should struggles originate within the groups, instructors should step in to guarantee that such struggles are rapidly resolved and explicate the deductions of unwanted behaviors. It is besides really of import that instructors provide approbation and, or motive where it is deserved. Students play the most of import function in the art of collaborative acquisition. Their functions include and are non limited to, working together, actively listening to each other, maintaining records of work and advancement, oppugning each other, presuming personal duty and finishing the assigned undertaking. An article written by Dillenbourg and Schneider provinces that there are a few mechanisms to collaborative acquisition: Conflict or Disagreement, proposing that when equal to peer struggles originate, societal factors cause scholars to disregard the dissension and to some extent forces them to happen a executable solution to the job. One facet of this theory states that diverging point of views normally lead to academic additions, while the other provinces that â€Å" when struggles are non verbalized they do non foretell positive results † ( Dillenbourg and Schneider, 1995 ) . This article draws two decisions relative to this mechanism one being that â€Å" little misinterpretations can be every bit efficient as a clear struggle between two agents who severally believe P and non P † and the 2nd being that â€Å" verbal interactions generated to work out struggle are related to larning results † ( Dillenbourg and Schneider, 1995 ) . Alternate Proposal besides referred to as the â€Å" verification prejudices † by Dillenbourg and Schneider ( 1995 ) . In so making pupils actively develop thoughts that support their suggestions and wholly disregard thoughts that do non. They frequently times can non abandon their thought or suggestion because another suggestion may non be forthcoming ; nevertheless other group members make alternate suggestions. ( Self- ) account ; the Self-Explanation consequence, as it is in known in many cognitive scientific discipline literature, describes that in a state of affairs where one pupil is more cognition that the other, the latter will automatically larn from the signifier, and besides that the former will hold on a better apprehension of the subject being explained as he endeavours to interpret into to footings to with the latter pupil can actively associate. Having successfully explained the more knowing pupil would hold improved upon his accomplishments to interrelate and gained improved assurance. Had there been any uncertainnesss in the account, person even more knowing might be able to clear up. Internalization ; the article explains this mechanism as one in which pupils explain or justify their suggestions to each other, the verbalisation of such impacts all involved and that the constructs communicated are integrated into the hearers concluding. â€Å" Thinking is viewed a treatment that 1 has with oneself and which develops on the footing of treatments we had with others † ( Dillenbourg and Schneider, 1995 ) . The article besides states that for this mechanism to be effectual a few conditions must be met, â€Å" One status is that topics can merely absorb constructs which are within their ‘zone of proximal development ‘ , i.e. within the vicinity of the current cognitive degree. Another status is that the less able equal is non left as a inactive hearer, but participates into the joint job work outing scheme † ( Dillenbourg and Schneider, 1995 ) Appropriation, this is explained as one pupil detecting the thoughts or accounts of another and taking those thoughts or accounts and edifice on it to do their ain. Learning is double as the first pupil reinterprets his actions relative to that of the 2nd, and the 2nd pupil got a sound foundation on which to construct. Shared Cognitive Load, this involves the distribution of undertakings which will come together to accomplish the overall aim of the group. When the work load is even shared between pupils, each pupil can work meticulously on the assigned undertaking, thereby extinguishing redundancies and bettering the efficiency of the group. Common Regulation, by using any of or a combination of the mechanisms antecedently described, pupils frequently have to modulate the actions of each other to guarantee that the stipulated guidelines are adhered to for the attainment of their ends. Social Grounding, described limpidly by Dillenbourg and Schneider as â€Å" the mechanism by which an person efforts to keep the belief that his spouse has understood what he meant, at least to an extent which is sufficient to transport out the undertaking at manus † ( Dillenbourg and Schneider, 1995 ) . This mechanism requires the talker to look into for apprehension, and where misunderstand is seeable to clear up, thereby constructing a portion apprehension of the job. George W. Gagnon. Jr. , and Michelle Collay developed another design for collaborative acquisition and in this theoretical account teachers develop a series of stairss that their instruction construction follows every bit listed below: â€Å" They develop a state of affairs for the pupils to explicate † ( Gagnon and Collay, 2004 ) â€Å" They select a procedure for groupings of stuffs and pupils † ( Gagnon and Collay, 2004 ) â€Å" They build a span between what pupils already cognize and what the instructors want them to larn † ( Gagnon and Collay,2004 ) â€Å" They anticipate inquiries to inquire and reply without giving away an account † ( Gagnon and Collay, 2004 ) â€Å" They encourage pupils to exhibit a record of their thought by sharing it with others † ( Gagnon and Collay, 2004 ) , and â€Å" They solicit pupils ‘ contemplations about their acquisition † ( Gagnon and Collay, 2004 ) . A comparing of there collaborative techniques, is illustrated in Appendix 1. Johnson, Johnson, and Smith ( 1991 ) high spots three cardinal undertakings instructors should follow for the rating of the efficiency and effectivity after there group work is completed. First, instructors should supply a closing through summarisation. That is, to sum up the lessons of import points or to hold each group explain their work and the points they found of most significance. Second is to measure the pupils larning, by measuring how they have attained or failed to achieve the coveted result and supplying the feedback required, leting pupils to better on their ability to work as a group and therefore personal development. Third, instructors should do note of the techniques that worked and why they worked and if necessary adjust their lessons. A popular definition of constructivism is that â€Å" Constructivism is a theory of cognition which claims that cognition is non passively received but actively constructed by the scholar, and that the map of knowledge is adaptative, functioning to organize experience, instead than detect world † ( online, 2010 ) Group work has academic, societal and physiological benefits to both pupils and instructors. Academic benefits include: the development of critical thought and the active engagement of pupils in the acquisition procedure. The societal benefits include: the development of societal larning systems for pupils and physiques diverseness apprehension among pupils and instructors. The physiological benefits include: increased self-esteem through peer-to-peer instructions and it reduces the anxiousness of pupils. Although collaborative larning seems to be dependent on the actions and willingness to larn, which should for many be a natural procedure, there are many disadvantages as there are advantages to is execution. A few of the obstructions faced are ; some pupils prefer to work competitively instead that collaboratively, instructors lack the ability to readily measure the work produced, instructors sometimes do non cognize how to mensurate the effectivity of their instructions in a collaborative scene, sometimes the assigned undertakings are non applicable to a pupils ends or abilities, and sometimes the undertakings are non â€Å" hard plenty to dispute but non so hard as to stonewall a conversation. † Some groups may be comprised of ‘slow scholars ‘ who may be viewed as others as priceless, thereby advancing ‘superior ‘ behaviour by the ‘fast scholars ‘ . Table 1, Appendix 2, illustrated assorted group constructions and the advantages and disad vantages to these groups. Nigel Hastings and Karen Chantrey-Wood from Nottingham Trent University explores the many schemes instructors utilize in group work activities, many of which are strongly endorsed by a commission known as the ‘Plowden Committee ‘ . â€Å" By disbursement clip with groups of kids, instructors could set their instruction to the demands of the persons of that group to a greater extent than when working with an full category of pupils as a whole. This besides ensures that all kids have a sensible sum of direct contact with their instructor regardless of the fact that they are working in groups † [ Hastings & A ; Wood, 2002 ] . This suggests that collaborative acquisition enhances the happening of individualised attending given to pupils, by presenting â€Å" one-on-one † interactions between pupils and equals and pupils and instructors. The article besides illustrates that schoolroom agreement is really of import in guaranting that collaborative acquisition is efficient and effectual. It shows that collaborative acquisition in widely accepted and really normally practiced across the Earth ; â€Å" In primary schoolrooms throughout the UK, it is standard pattern for kids to sit around sorted tabular arraies – normally with four to six kids in each group. Such agreements are besides common in primary schools in other English-speaking states, Australia and USA for illustration. Precisely because this constellation is so normal and so good established in our schools, it is unusual to inquire about its principle or to oppugn its rightness † [ Hastings & A ; Wood, 2002 ] . An abstract written from an experiment conducted by Gillies and Ashman, â€Å" One hundred and 92 Grade 6 kids participated in a survey which compared the effects on behavioral interactions and accomplishment of ( a ) co-op acquisition in which group members were trained to join forces to ease each other ‘s acquisition, and ( B ) co-op acquisition in which members were non trained but were simply told to assist each other. Graded random assignment of participants occurred so that each gender-balanced group consisted of one high- , two medium- , and one low-ability studentaˆÂ ¦ † ( Gillies & A ; Ashman, 1999 ) . The observations showed that the pupils who worked in the ‘Trained ‘ groups where more antiphonal and helpful to each other, giving accounts where necessary to help as they worked together. It showed that pupils in the ‘untrained ‘ groups were a batch less helpful towards or concerted with each other. From the consequences it was besid es concluded that â€Å" the kids in the ‘trained ‘ groups exercised more autonomy with their acquisition and obtained higher acquisition results than ‘untrained ‘ equals † ( Gillies & A ; Ashman, 1999 ) . This survey is one of the many to certify to the success of group work. Despite some drawbacks Collaborative acquisition has legion benefits, as is explained, runing from academic to physiological and it execution in primary schools is rather a positive move. Students at the primary school degree are rather waxy and there is no better clip for them to develop the really valuable competencies that working in a group has to offer. At the primary school degree they are mature plenty to hold an apprehension of what group work requires. Many of the surveies conducted were centralized around childhood developments. Students who can successfully work in groups from the primary school degree are normally better equipped for when come ining higher degree larning establishments. They would hold learnt to comfortably associate with equals and grownups, such as instructors or other authorization figures, they would hold learnt the value of self-expression and self-explanation, actively listen and esteem the positions of others. These pupils realize that as persons w e have different backgrounds, experiences and traditions and as such may hold diverging attacks to the same job. These pupils will besides be better able to distinguish between the demand to work collaborative and the demand to work competitively and in so making will cognize when best to use the several attacks. This research has revealed that both the instructors and the pupils play a polar function in the success of collaborative acquisition. Teachers are non expected to merely delegate undertakings and sit back while the pupils work on their ain. Teachers must play an active function throughout the procedure. They must be after for the assignment with clearly structured undertakings that will advance collaborative interactions, promote mutuality and excite cognitive thought among pupils. Teacher must supervise the procedure supplying ongoing feedback and be readily able to decide struggles should they originate. Teachers should be able to actively scaffold their pupils, cognizing when their support is needed and that it should bit by bit be withdraw. Students in order to successfully accomplish their aims in groups must appreciate the benefits of group work. They must hold a clear apprehension of the coveted aim and the sub-task demand to successfully accomplish the aim. They must be able to actively and reflectively listen to each other and utilize creativeness and objectiveness to work positively together. In so making they will larn to further positive work attitudes with others, thereby bettering on their interpersonal accomplishments as they prepare for the work universe. Appendix 1 Three Constructivist Design Models [ 1 ]1. The Learning Cycle2. The Learning Step developed by George W. Gagnon. Jr. and Michelle Collay 3. The Information Construction ( ICON ) theoretical account created by Robert O. McClintock and John B. Black, and is really similar to Dillenbourg and Schneider. Appendix 2 Table 1: Forms of Cooperative Groups [ 2 ]Name OF GROUPWHAT IS THIS?WORKS BEST FORBenefitsDrawbackPair-share 2 pupils with one job portion their thoughts or inquiries. Each individual speaks, listens, & A ; gives feedback. Content that requires treatment, contemplation, or account. Increased engagement clip, Helps those who are diffident Fewer positions and solutions Saber saw Each member of the little group researches one portion of the inquiry /content for a certain sum of clip. The members of the group come back together. Each member teaches his/her portion to the remainder of the group. Content with four or five parts to research. Students gain learning and research accomplishments Some pupils feel pressured by a clip bound Split-class treatment The category is split into half. Each side discusses /debates their cognition /beliefs, etc. Arguments or treatments Students may alter their sentiment or develop a different position Some pupils may talk less with such a big group. Random groups of 3 Class is split into groups of 3. The groups discuss the subject. Predicting what will go on, reacting to a state of affairs. Receive a assortment of feedback, group members are accountable Easy to go forth out or team up against a diffident pupil or one who has a different sentiment Ability/Interest/Friendship Group Students are divided into groups based on some quality that they all have in common. Making plays/skits or an activity in which pupils must work together outside of category. Students can work at a gait that best suits them, pupils are seldom world-weary and frequently motivated It is unrealistic to happen a wholly homogenous group, weaker or unpopular pupils may be excluded. Diverseness Groups Students are formed into groups where they come from a broad assortment of backgrounds, involvements, etc. Researching geographics, history, and diverse life styles. There are many chances to derive different positions Minorities may go anomic Multi-aged groups Students are divided into groups in which there are a mixture of ages Older pupils learning younger pupils ( i.e. scientific discipline experiments ) . Older students- there is less force per unit area to vie with equals, Younger pupils fell of import that an older individual is passing clip with them Older pupils may be a bad influence ; Older pupils may non cognize how to work with a younger kid or an â€Å" at hazard † pupil Peer-led Conferences Students prepare and take a treatment of stuff with parents, teachers, pupils, etc. A major undertaking in which pupils set up Stationss for several intelligences. Students get the chance to genuinely learn, pupils learn self assurance. Students whose parents are inactive in the school may be alienated from those whose parents participate ; some pupils may non be involved in interactions. Notes: These diagrams were obtained from: hypertext transfer protocol: //www.thirteen.org/edonline/concept2class/constructivism/implementation_sub1.html This tabular array was obtained from: hypertext transfer protocol: //projects.coe.uga.edu/epltt/index.php? title=Cooperative_Learning # Frequently_Asked_Questions_about_Cooperative_Learning